TNR catalogs explanations of defeat
TNR debunks and debriefs on the litany of reasons proposed for Kerry’s loss. It’s good to see a good quick handling of the claim that Kerry was downed by an anti-gay rabid christian vote; I can’t beleive such bitter sentiments haven’t yet taken their place along side the post-election tripe of Jacques Parizeau:
Theory: It’s about Gavin Newsom and Margaret Marshall. If the San Francisco Mayor and the Massachusetts jurist hadn’t led the charge for gay marriage in America, conservatives wouldn’t have turned out in record numbers to support anti-gay marriage referenda and the president.
Notable Proponent: Congressman Barney Frank.
Notable Critic: Andrew Sullivan.
Evidence: High turnout usually benefits Democrats, but this year it benefited Republicans. In decisive Ohio, where job losses should have tilted the electorate in Kerry’s favor but a gay marriage referendum was on the ballot, Bush came out on top.Counter-Evidence: Turnout was not any higher in states with gay marriage referenda than in those without them. In Oregon and Michigan, voters supported Kerry while banning gay marriage.
Likely Contribution to Outcome: 5 percent. “Newsom is the Nader of 2004″ is a pithy line for dinner-party pundits, but the numbers just don’t indicate that the San Franciscan spoiled a Kerry victory. Still, gay marriage undoubtedly whipped up some fervor on the right.
Likely Solution for ‘08: The places to advance equality for gay Americans are the legislatures, not the courts. This would prevent gay-marriage opponents from playing on the public’s fear of so-called activist judges.